No one will ever truly be certain if the first American president of
the third millenium was elected according to the laws of the land and
the will of the people. The flaws in the process were evident.
Election ballots can present a voter with three very different
situations. The simplest is when a candidate runs unopposed. You can
vote for the candidate, or abstain (possibly allowing a write-in
candidate to win if sufficient write-in votes are cast). The next
simplest is the binary choice. You can vote for or against; you can
vote to retain or not to retain; you can vote for A or B. However,
when you have three or more choices, things aren’t so simple. A
two-party system strives for that simple binary choice, but this
requires all candidates to work within the mainstream parties, and this
may not be acceptable in every case. Let’s numinate about fixing
what’s wrong with our system as it pertains to electing a president.
If we have candidates A, B, and C, shouldn’t it at least be the case
that our election process could put the candidates into an uncontested
first, second, and third place ranking? Let’s say that when A runs
against B, A is the winner, and when B runs against C, B is the winner,
then in a race between A and C, shouldn’t A always be the winner? It
turns out this is not necessarily true. Consider the case of three
voters and three candidates. Voter 1 could prefer A, but choose B if A
were not running. Voter 2 could prefer B, but choose C if B were not
running. And, voter 3 could prefer C, but choose A if C were not
running. Thus, with A versus B, voters 1 and 3 would elect A. With B
versus C, voters 1 and 2 would elect B. And, with A versus C, voters 1
and 3 would elect C. Each of these elections is won by a clear 2/3rds
majority! A beats B, B beats C, and C beats A. It’s the old rock,
paper, scissors game all over again. It’s a problem, and Kenneth Arrow
won the Nobel Prize proving all voting systems have them.
Election 2000 pointed out two weaknesses in our system that we could
fix, however. First, there is the problem that the popular vote is not
reflected by the Electoral College winner take all approach. Second,
there is the effect of third party candidates unevenly pulling votes
away from one of the major party candidates causing a different result
than if there were no third choice on the ballot.
There are two ways to fix the first problem. The most radical is to
tally the votes nationally for the presidential election and declare a
winner based on the popular vote without regard for state or district.
The second would preserve the intent of the constitution that we have a
representative democracy, and that the election of a president should
reflect a voter’s representation within congress. Each state has two
senators, and a number of representatives determined by its population.
Each of these gives it a vote in the Electoral College. There is no
solid link between a voter and his electoral representative, however.
In all states, a majority of the state vote is supposed to determine
two of its Electoral votes. But for the remaining votes, only two
states (Maine and Nebraska) do the logical thing and vote their
congressional districts one by one—in all other states it’s winner
take all.
My choice would be to retain the intent of our constitution, but
update the process using the Maine-Nebraska approach. Each
congressional district should cast its vote for president. A majority
of the district votes should determine the state’s two additional votes
(with a tie being possible). Our founding fathers might have done it
this way in the first place were it not for their lack of modern
technology.
As for the second problem, how should we handle elections with three
or more candidates? This is a very hard problem. So far, no scheme
has ever been proposed that doesn’t have a flaw, given criteria that
most would accept as reasonable, coupled with special, but possible,
voting patterns. The current scheme suffers from two flaws, in my
opinion. First, it allows a candidate who would not be elected in any
two-way race, to take votes away from another candidate who, with those
votes, would be elected in all two-way races. Second, it can
discourage voters from voting their first-choice out of fear that a
candidate they don’t want might win. In any race of three or more
candidates, you have to ask yourself: Who would I most like to win?
Who would be my second choice? And, who would I least like to win?
Consider election 2000. Isn’t it possible that three two-way races
could have had the following results? Gore might have beaten Bush.
Bush might have beaten Nader. Nader might have beaten Gore. Even so,
in a three-way race, most Nader supporters might have voted for Gore
because they may have been even more worried that Bush would win.
Likewise, they might have voted for Nader only if they thought Bush was
going to win anyway. So, in such a three-way race, do either Gore or
Nader get their fair share of votes? I think not—but how do we
define “fair” under these conditions?
Let’s assume we can devise a better method for selecting among three
or more alternatives. What might that method be? There are at least
two approaches: The tournament approach, where a number of binary
votes are taken between various pairs of alternatives, and the ranking
approach, where each voter assigns a value to all the alternatives.
There are any number of ways that either of these approaches might be
implemented. For example, the three most popular ways of running
tournaments are round robin, single elimination, and double
elimination. As for ranking, weights can represent a simple ordering,
or a more flexible assignment of some total value per voter. The
problem with making a change is that we don’t want the voting process
to become horrendously complex.
My approach to changing any working system is to make the smallest
effective change and deviate as little as possible from the current
intentions or conditions. The simplest way I can see to address the
three issues for each voter (first choice, second choice, and please
not that one) is to list the candidates twice: In the FOR category,
you could vote for up to two candidates; in the AGAINST category, you
could vote for one. This means that you could cast up to two positive
votes (for different candidates), and up to one negative vote for
(presumably) a third candidate.
If I preferred Nader in election 2000, I could have voted FOR him
and Gore, and cast a vote AGAINST Bush. As it was, most Nader voters
were likely to vote for Gore if they thought the race in their district
or state was too close to call. So, how many voters preferred Nader?
With our current system, there’s no way to tell. With my proposal, a
vote for both Nader and for Gore doesn’t hurt either one of them. On
the other side of the ticket, voters might have cast positive votes for
Bush and Buchanan, and negative votes for Gore. Who knows? Buchanan
and Nader might even have qualified for federal matching campaign
funds.
Numinate on the effects of these changes. Voting starts within a
precinct. For purposes of voting for a president, each precinct is
within a congressional district. If there is any corruption or problem
with the voting in a district, in the current system the effects could
go beyond that district. In the proposed system they could not. In a
representative democracy, one’s vote is supposed to have its effect at
the local level. A single vote can only influence a local result.
Each district is supposed to represent the same number of people, no
matter where it is located in the United States. It is the purpose of
our census to update this every ten years. If fifty voters decide the
election in one district, and every voter turns out for an election in
another district, obviously the voters in the first district have more
individual voting power than those in the second. The way that a
single vote can influence the final outcome is different for different
voting schemes. In a representative democracy, a single vote typically
carries more weight in some districts than it does in others.
In the unlikely event of a tie (as they say in the contest
advertisements), I think that the incumbent senator or representative
for the state or district in question should get to decide the issue.
If the tie occurs at the national level it should be treated as a tie
vote in the senate, namely the vice president should get to break the
tie. The Electoral College would cease to be.
The effects of two positive and one negative votes per voter are
even more interesting. Our current two-party system overwhelmingly
stacks the deck in favor of the mainstream parties. The proposed
system would greatly improve the situation for a third-party candidate.
Imagine an election between two mainstream candidates with a
third-party candidate in the middle. Suppose about half of the voters
were for and against each of the mainstream candidates, but nearly all
of them cast their second votes for the third-party candidate. It’s
possible that the two mainstream candidates might totally cancel each
other out—with the net vote going almost entirely to the third-party
candidate. Scenarios where the winning candidate’s net support would
be less than a majority of the votes cast would become even more likely
than they are in the current system.
Nevertheless, I claim that the collective will of the people would
be better served with these changes than it is in our current system.
Can you think of a way to represent the collective will even better
than this? Can you think of a simpler way that adequately represents
it? If you can, please send me email. If there’s a better way, let’s
work for change. In any case, let’s keep numinating!
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